PriceWireA 60% win rate can still lose money
Accuracy leaves out the size of your losses and the cost of being right. Work through the arithmetic yourself.
2026-09-22
Before you trust
the numbers.
Research for people who want to understand how a market claim holds up.
Follow the calculation. Change the assumptions. Keep a record of what happened next.
Open research notes
Follow via RSSWrite the resolution rule before the forecast
A dated prediction is only useful if two people can agree later on whether it happened.
2026-09-22
The benchmark is part of the experiment
Before celebrating a result, check whether a simpler alternative faced the same dates, universe and costs.
2026-09-22
A practical kit for
testing your own ideas.
An offline workbench, a forecast journal, a scoring script and a guide to designing an experiment you can learn from.
See what is included$19 one-time planned price
Original tools and examples.
No subscription or market-data account required.
Publish the explanation, not just the headline.
For financial educators and publishers: original explainers with inspectable calculations, reusable charts and explicit limitations.
Explore the publisher pilot